Eastern Kentucky March Breakdown

Typically I have a lot of respect for Ohio Valley representatives and Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 11-5) will play hard next week, hit some shots and compete. Their rpi is 99 and bpi is 140 and are now ranked 22 in the mid majors poll. But they cannot board (26.2 per which is 350th in country) and it is hard to fathom their upsetting a 2 or 3 seed if they cannot stop the other team's bigs. Against North Carolina State earlier in the season they got blown out on the scoreboard and on the glass (44-29) and Wolfpack star T.J. Warren scored 30. So remember that when you see the seeding for the Colonels: if they pull a high seed that does not board well themselves then be bullish, if not then pass and elevate the other team's bigs. Also keep an eye on their opponents' FG% on defense as the colonels can shoot (49%, 10th in NCAA). The team's top five scorers are guards, led by Glenn Cosey (18.8 ppg, 18.7 ppg last 7, 43%FG-43% 3pters-84% FT). The Colonels ride the hot hand and if not Cosey it should be Corey Walden (14.1, 17, 50-33-83), who had a great Ohio Valley tournament and comes into the NCAA tourney on the heels of 24 and 29-pt outbursts. The next two scorers share a spot and can be avoided. Marcus Lewis (9.9, 6, 53-33-57) has been losing time to Orlando Williams (9.6, 9.3, 49-42-78). Should Eastern have a favorable first round match-up then Tarius Johnson (9.5, 16, 48-42-71) would make a great sleeper as he really has come on of late.

Manhattan March Madness Breakdown

There are a number of questions swirling around a Manhattan (2-7, 15-5) program that is certainly built to be a real pain in the ass to a higher seed next week. If they face a vulnerable high seed and if point guard Michael Alvarado's ankle is 100% and star guard George Beamon's injured shoulder is 100%, then the Jaspers have the talent and city game to reach the Sweet 16. They proved that by beating rival Iona twice at the end of the season, including in the championship game of the MAAC conference to become top dog of a very good mid-major. Manhattan, with a 75 bpi, 61 rpi, 67 ranking in ken.pom and a ranking of 15 in the mid majors top 25 is dangerous because they can score, at 77.4 a clip, and yet play tough defense (like Iona). They are a team to circle when filling out your brackets. Beamon (19.2 ppg, 19.8 ppg last 7, 41%FG-37%3pt-83%FT) is the go-to player. Beamon certainly looked healthy in scoring 25 pts in the MAAC semis against a Quinnipiac squad that had swept the season series, and then adding 16 in the championship game against Iona. He is a gunner to get. Alvarado (12, 7.3, 45-28-66) is one to pass on as ankles are tricky and he is not that much better than his mates. Forward Rhamel Brown (10.1, 12.1, 55-51) is a shot-blocking big who does his work down below. Having just won his third straight conference defensive player of the year, Brown will be on the court as much as possible. The next player to keep an eye on is sub forward Emmy Andujar (8.5 14.7, 53-36-68) who is a lot tougher than his name would suggest. He has been playing very well of late but is a true wild card, scoring 1 point on 2/4 versus St.Pete's and 28 against Iona on 2/28. But for a late round pick you could get lucky.

Mount St. Mary's March Breakdown

Congratulations to the Mountaineers for making the dance but at 16-16 there is not too much expected. Still, if your draft counts points scored in Dayton--and the Mountaineers are definitely playing there against another 16th seed--then you must scout this team. The main reason to look at this squad is that they have a gunner, guard Rashad Whack (17.7 ppg, 19.4 ppg last 7, 42%FG-37%3pters-80%FT) who enters the tourney red hot. Whack, who beat St. Francis of NY in the first round of the Northeast tournament with a last second 3, scored 28-21-20 in the three games of the Northeast championship. He managed only 10 pts against Villanova earlier this season and that same number against Michigan State so if the Mount does win in round two he may not add too much to your first round total. Still points are points. The other intriguing player is guard Julian Norfleet (17.5, 16.3, 46-36-75) who may not be as hot as Whack can still fill it up. The only other player to consider is guard Sam Prescott (11, 13.7, 42-32-79) but only late.

UW-Milwaukee March Breakdown

The Panthers are back to the tournament, although they no longer inspire the fear they did among power conferences as they did ten years ago. Those squads not only did well--Milwaukee is 3-3 overall in the tourney--but impressed enough to make Bruce Pearl a hoops celebrity of sorts. What is amazing to me is that the 2005 Panthers that went to the sweet sixteen did so by beating Bama by 10 and BC by 8. In '06 under new and current coach Rob Jeter they beat OU by 10 in the first round. No buzzer beaters needed. This squad saved their surprises for the Horizon tournament when they not only became the first five seed to win it all but did so by beating big favorite Green Bay on their home court in the semis and Wright State on their home floor in the finals. I just cannot see them doing anything else unless they pull a real turkey high seed for the first game. Milwaukee is ranked 131 in the rpi and 149 in the bpi. They went 21-13 overall and only 7-9 in conference. Bronx native and lead guard Jordan Aaron (15 ppg, 18.4 ppg last 7, 39-36-81) is the guy to own as he is, well, a chucker. Make sure he is not suspended for the game however, as he has missed time recently. Forward Kyle Kelm (12.6, 13.3, 52-71) is not a bad last round pick. Forwards Matt Tiby (12.1, 9.3, 42-31-75) and Austin Arians (10.9, 9, 47-37-78) are probably just filler.

Delaware March Breakdown

Beware The Fightin' Blue Hens! Delaware has the ability and experience to knock off a big or two and must be on everyone's radar for one main reason--points. Not only do the Colonial Athletic champs score at a 79.5 clip and have five players in double figures including three players averaging 18 ppg or more but their opponents will score too and you must leave a draft with either one of their guys or one of their opponents' scorers. Winning a college hoops draft involves much more than advancing players as sometimes you advance ten guys averaging 10 ppg and the guy in first only advanced seven players but they average 18 ppg. Delaware is good and the CAA has of course, produced upsets before. The Mud Hens also have a situation that will reward those doing their homework. Point guard Jarvis Threatt is back from suspension and the Mud Hens are certainly better with arguably their best player back in fold. But, when he was gone others scored more points and so Threatt (18.1 ppg, 19.2 ppg last 5, 42-69)sits in third place on the team's scoring table yet should be first on your list. The ball will be in his hands folks. Senior guards Devon Saddler (19.7, 16.4 last 5, 44-35-71) and Davon Usher (19.4, 16.8, 45-36-74) are very good, and both shoot 3s, but will go a round or two before the better Threatt. Delaware's main big Carl Baptiste (11.3, 15.4, 58-70)--like Saddler and Usher a senior (other two starters are juniors)--is an intriguing case as he is coming off a career high 24 points including the game winner in the title game versus William and Mary but is a smaller conference big. That said he is big, 6'9, 240, and should hold his own but may have too much to do against a team with a wave of big men to throw at him. If you draft him pray for him to stay out of foul trouble. In games earlier in the season against Villanova, Notre Dame and Ohio State, Baptiste averaged 8.7 ppg. Guard Kyle Anderson (11, 10.6 40-39-75) is consistent. He is the team's last option though so save for a late round. Delaware, which went 25-9, 14-2, is ranked 73 in rpi, 98 in bpi and are ninth in the mid majors top 25. Coach Monte Ross, who has rebuilt this program, has another advantage having been a top assistant at St. Joseph's when they went to the Elite 8 in 2004. Baring an awful seeding I am bullish on the Fightin' Mud Hens.

Coastal Carolina March Breakdown

Want to get to the big dance? Hire coach Cliff Ellis, who has now taken his fourth program to the NCAA tournament with the Chanticleers winning the Big South tourney. Ellis throws three guards at you defensively, with offense coming off turnovers or rebounds (11th nationally with nr 40 per). I do not think that they are good enough offensively to pull off a huge upset unless their threes are falling but if they draw a 16-seed play-in game then they deserve a look for fantasy leagues that count those games. They went 21-12 without a major upset and are 201 in the rpi. they have played a number of top teams in the recent pass and will not be overwhelmed. Frosh guard Elijah Wilson (16.1 ppg, 15.9 ppg last 7, 44%FG-31%3pt-70%FT) leads the way but keep in mind that he only averaged 11.5 the last two--the two most important games of the season. Backcourt mate Warren Gillis (14.8 ppg, 19.1 last 7, 46-38-85) is the one to target late, as he has been red hot. He will also have the ball in his hand at end of game with a close lead thanks to his excellent FT shooting. Guard Josh Cameron (14.1 ppg 13.3 last 7, 39-38-75) may be the wild card as he elevated his game in the Big South tourney, averaging a team-high 18. Forward Badou Diagme (7.8 ppg, 9.3 last 7, 53-37-70) is strictly deep league filler.

Mercer March Madness Breakdown

The Mercer Bears enter the NCAA tournament--for the first time since 1985--on quite a high after beating Florida Gulf Coast on FGCU's home court to win the Atlantic Sun championship and avenge a tough loss last year. They went 26-8 this year, 14-4 in conference and have wins against Seton Hall and on the road versus Mississippi. Also note that this experienced team did not sulk after losing the ASun finals last year but went to Knoxville and beat Tennessee in the first round of the NIT before losing at BYU. They are an excellent and efficient team, quite capable of repeating FGCU's tournament success from last March. Currently they are ranked 10 in the mid majors poll, 101 on KenPom and 105 in BPI. Leading scorer guard Langston Hall (14.7) has been a model of consistency in averaging 14.9 the last seven. He shoot 40% from the floor, 39% from 3 and 86% from the charity stripe. Hall is the only Bear averaging double digits and the rest of the key players have been all over the map down the stretch. Center Daniel Coursey (9.9ppg, 9.6 ppg last 7, 58%FG-73%FT) has also been consistent but he will not be a sexy pick, nor too attractive if he has to butt heads with a talented big or two. Third leading scorer F Bud Thomas (9.1 ppg, 6.3 ppg last 7, 46-39-39) should be avoided after limping in the past two weeks. The fourth leading scorer G Anthony White (8.3 ppg, 12.9 ppg last 7, 47-42-81) is the one to grab late in the bargain bin. He scored 56 pts in the three games of the conference tournament and being a guard is attractive in March. Part of his success is that third guard Ike Nwamu, who scored 24 versus Mississippi, is apparently banged up and not scoring of late (5.1 last 7 versus 8.1 on season). If someone beats you to Hall and White, a nice last round consolation prize would be F Jakob Gillon (7.8 ppg, 10.4 ppg last 7, 44-37-75) who has scored 18-10-17-12 the last four games. If Mercer pulls a beatable high seed then you should pounce on one of the three attractive targets as they could advance and not share points with too many other teams. Don'tignore them because of only one double digit scorer.