You Can't Punt November

With the attention focused on the fine debuts of most stud freshmen and the overall success of elite teams, some fine basketball is happening under the radar. And even though it is only November 9, some eventual bubble teams are compiling early season material, good or bad, for the selection committee as every game counts. Miami, unfortunately, is proving that they may not even make the bubble for the cbi tourney. St. Francis of Brooklyn was not very good last year and lost its top scorer. They still had enough to travel to Miami and beat the rebuilding Canes, who do not resemble the talented team from last year with so much lost to graduation, in overtime. For our purposes, preparing for March Madness, the only result is that we can ignore Miami unless their rebuilding efforts come through by conference play. The middle of the ACC did not fare well elsewhere either as Maryland lost by 1 to UConn and BC lost in ot to Providence. The Terps were led by Nick Faust's 17, while Dez Wells, Jake Layman and Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz all scored 13. The Terps missed Alex Len but are deeper than last year and should have a decent shot for a tourney berth. BC also had no surprises with scoring as Oliver Hanlon scored 23 and Ryan Anderson added 21. For the winners of those two games, UConn and Providence, they now play in different conferences. The win by the Friars, who were led by Bryce Cotton's 28, was the only one in three for the conference in big games yesterday. Georgetown showcased UCLA transfer Josh Smith, who scored 25, but the team shot so poorly from the floor and charity stripe in the game played in South Korea that us scouts must see improvement or it will be the same old story for the Hoyas come March. The other key loss for the conference was expected as St. John's fell to Wisconsin in South Dakota. The Johnnies waited too long to put pressure on the hot shooting Badgers and could never fully recover from an 18-pt first half deficit. The key for the Badgers was the return of guard Josh Gasser, who led them with 19 points, from a knee injury. D'Angelo Harrison led St. John's with 27 points. UConn was the marquee win for the new AAC (with all due respect to SMU's win over TCU) and the team played well in building a 17-point lead over the Terps. Last year's squad then showed up and allowed Maryland back in the game. shabazz Napier scored 18 while Niels Giffey hot 5-6for 13 points in only 17 minutes.

It's Baaaaaack

I must admit while I love watching college hoops it is just too early these days. That said, let's throw ourselves into the mix and enjoy. Nothing shocking...yet. I will give you my pick for national champion now, especially since their season has tipped. I went with Michigan State, who crushed McNeese State today. The Spartans enjoyed a 66-29 rebounding advantage in that one. I'll begin breaking down the key early season tournament games soon.

Today's Picks

I sit at 3-0 but will take advanatge of today's great slate of games to up the ante.
Maryland -1.5 at Wake
Cuse -1 hosting Louisville
Butler +7.5 at VCU
Alabama +16.5 at Florida
Tennessee -1.5 at Georgia
Minnesota -15 hosting PSU
Temple -13 hosting URI
Xavier -4 hosting UMass
Saint Louis -5 at GW
Miami +6.5 at Duke
Middle Tenn -7.5 at West Kentucky
KSU +2 at Baylor
Providence -7.5 hosting St. John's
Clemson +1 at Va Tech
Wichita State +5.5 at Creighton
Good luck

Big East/No Picks For Tonight

Wow, the news of the additions for the "new" Big East--and yes the Catholic Seven appear to be keeping the name--is great (for them anyway, not so great for the Atlantic 10 and MVC).  Butler and Xavier will join next year and then Dayton, St. Louis and Creighton will join the following year.
As for tonight's picks I thought about both BYU and Utah State as dogs against very good competition (Gonzaga and La Tech) but chickened out.  I stand at 3-0.

Tonight's Pick

UConn getting 1.5
This is the last marquee game for a Huskies squad that cannot play much in March. This will be their title game.

How Injuries Affect Your Thinking

When preparing a draft list for a fantasy college basketball team--or well any team--the role of injuries is of course crucial.  For this year's tournament there will be some obvious dilemmas for everyone in terms of guys injured in March and not ruled out for a mid-month return.  Duke's Ryan Kelly was hurt in the ACC tournament last year and was drafted, nonetheless, in the third round of the Hagamit Tournament.  He did not play and his owner was saddled with a bagel for a third round player.  That's hard to overcome.  This year Kelly is hurt again and we will have to wait and see both if he will return and to what level.
Injuries are more complicated than that, however.  Take last night's Florida loss.  The Gators are not the same team as they were a couple of weeks ago due to injuries to key role players.  The stars are healthy but the margin of winning versus losing is tighter without the depth these players provided.  Unlike roti football, pro basketball and baseball, injuries to guys you do not own could more easily screw the guys you do own.  Own a RB in a share and the other guy gets hurt?  You celebrate.  Own the set up guy and he closer gets hurt and your guy becomes the new night-inning man?  Get the champagne on ice.  Now it is not as simple as that as an injury to a team's leadoff man will hurt the third or fourth hitter you may own but generally you may get more opportunities for your team and your team will continue with its schedule.  That second point, of course, is crucial with March Madness fantasy.  Should Florida still lack depth come March you must not celebrate the extra minutes coming to the starters but be worried that they may get bounced early.  Duke may have beaten Lehigh in the first round last year with Kelly.  Who knows?  The key to winning is not finding out because you still have to take that team's stars high.  Plumlee and Curry went in the second round and Rivers ar the end of round one.  Losing high picks in round one hurts.
There is a part two to this discussion, which will follow.

Tonight's Picks

For fun I'll give you some free predictions on games.  I will start tonight with Xavier getting 5 from visiting Memphis and another home dog, Tennessee, who is getting 8.5 from Florida.  Good luck.

Bracket Busters

One of the many problems with scouting this weekend's lineup of mid majors versus mid majors is that the schedule is based on television and not the best situation for folks like me needing to scout.  For example I have seen Creighton and St. Marys play and do not need to see hem pitted against each other, although I will watch that game of course and learn from it.  But I really needed to scout Akron but last night's game did not show me much thanks to a middling opponent (N. Dakota St.) being played at home.  With the MAC not guaranteed a second team, despite Ohio's great run in last year's NCAA tournament, Akron really needed to impress last night but was not given the opportunity.
The other problem is he home-road scenario.  There is not much you can do about this, of course, but the home teams do not get the needed boost that a big road win would give them.  Stephen F. Austin did look good on the road last night but neither the Lumberjacks nor Long Beach were getting an at large.  It was a nice win for Stephen F. but it is difficult to glean much from a match-up they will not get in March if they do get in.
The best part of this weekend for me is just the attention these schools get, even if it is way down in terms of ESPN respect in this the last year of Bracket Busters.  While it may have been less important than once thought, it was crucial to getting programs on air that normally get ignored.  So in addition to Creighton and St. Marys, enjoy Davidson, Detroit and the Nate Wolters versus Isiah Canaan match-up tonight.

Uggggh!

ESPN's weekly coverage of college football is focused on one main topic: which two teams are going to play for the national championship.  That's the main topic, especially from September through November, and they speak ad nauseum about which teams could run the table and who is the best one-loss team etc.  It is enough to make you sick.
So now they are doing it in hoops, where so much of what they talk about centers on the top spot in the weekly polls and which of only a handful of teams they deem worthy of the spot will, in fact, earn it this week.  They speak very little, if anything, of conference races despite the fact that these races are what is truly important and they lose sight of the fact that play on the court should be promoted and not the tradition behind the jersey.  And so they spend hours discussing Kansas's bad play but not one minute on Kansas State's good play.  But it is the Wildcats, not Jayhawks, who now occupy the top spot in the Big 12 (not that I have given them their just due but will soon), at least until tomorrow night's match-up against their in-state rivals.  The Cats are just one of many teams that have shot to the top of their respective conferences, surprising the prognosticators with their fine play.  Miami, of course, has been the year-round surprise in the ACC, but did you know that St. Louis has caught Butler and VCU atop the Atlantic 10, that Marquette is tied with Syracuse as leaders of the Big East, ditto Michigan State with Indiana in Big Ten, Indiana State has reeled in Wichita State and Creighton in the Missouri Valley and that Colorado State is a half game back in the Mountain West?  Meanwhile there is a three-way tie for the Pac 12 lead and Kentucky is breathing down Florida's neck in the SEC.  The conference races are wonderful and should be the focus of the national media's attention.  Who cares who is number one this week?

Kansas Falters

One of the many difficulties in making selections or bids on players in fantasy is how much we should weigh what we see in person or on tv versus what the stats tell us for a player's entire season.  Take this week.  If you watched Kansas struggle Wednesday against a mediocre-at-best Horned Frogs squad, you would not only pass on any and all Jayhawks come March but not even put them on your board.  They were awful and being that Kansas was, and still is, looking at a top seed we have to view Ben McLemore, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford, et al, as high round picks with McLemore being looked at as a top ten selection.  Now what's a fantasy player to do?
Human nature, and fantasy players are human (I think), will lead us to hammer KU if we entered this week as disbelievers--and I am in that category--or treat the game as an aberration if we like KU come March.  Obviously they have six weeks to straighten things out but you will be affected come March by watching that dreadful game compared to someone who did not.  This is especially true if you only watched Kansas looking bad but happen to only watch, let's say Duke, look good.  You did not catch the Blue Devils in their dreadful game, last month against Miami, but caught games like last night against the Wolfpack.  And so in the first round with your third pick you are debating Mason Plumlee and Ben McLemore and you remember Plumlee's 30 last night and McLemore's 0-6 from 3, you are taking Plumlee.  This is especially true in the second round when guys like Duke's Quinn Cook and Kansas's Releford are on the board.  If you do not watch many games but saw Releford score 1 point on Wednesday and Cook 21 last night, well you'll pull the trigger on Cook.
Further complicating things is how you compare stars of player from the more prestigious, and at times overrated, conferences to the leading players from schools we rarely see.  Isaiah Canaan looked great last night on the U versus Belmont and should Murray State make the tourney and not get totally screwed with their seeding, you will have to decide between him and let's say Kansas's Elijah Johnson in the third round.  Based on what we saw this week, Canaan is the pick because he has a legitimate shot to play a couple of games and score 50 or more points while KU may not go too far and Johnson struggles at times to score.  Last year I had both and Johnson was much more valuable as he helped Kansas reach the finals while Murray lost to Marquette in round two.  With these players you can win with a great performance, like Stephen Curry when Davidson went Final Eight or get frustrated pulling the trigger on a gun who struggles in a first round loss.
So remember to watch as much as you can so one or two performances do not get overblown and to balance what you see versus what you know--like Bill Self's incredible record in the NCAA tournament.

Big East Update

The main focus of the national media concerning the Big East these days is the league's eventual dismantling.  When they do get around to actual basketball coverage, the focus is sharply on the merits of Syracuse and Louisville.  The other programs?  Well I bet most of America would be surprised that today's updating of the bracket by Lunardi has eight Big East teams going to the dance.  Some very good BE teams are being somewhat ignored, including squads like Pitt that are usually given too much coverage, and I find it quite strange.
What does this mean for fantasy?  Well, two things.  One that the Big East could find itself screwed, once again, come time for seeding.  The other important factor is that many of these teams will be overlooked, of all things, come draft time and produce bargains for the careful fantasy player.  League co-leader Marquette has a great tradition of producing undervalued fantasy players and they should again is they remain under the radar.  Leading scorer Vander Blue has been hot in conference play and would be a steal if he drops.  Pittsburgh is not sexy as they are back to winning on D and do not have a big-time scorer.  But swingman Lamar Patterson has been hot of late and he will be sitting there for you in the mid to late rounds.  Georgetown is an interesting case as they pulled out of a mini funk once forward Greg Whittington, the team's second leading scorer at 12.1 per, got suspended.  Leading scorer Otto Porter has taken it upon himself to carry the Hoyas and in the five games Whittington has missed he has scored 19-20-21-19-17 to raise his average to 14.7.  He too should fall further than necessary.
So continue to scout the Big East and, depending on seeding, be prepared to mine the talent come March.

Pac 12 Update

One cannot overstate the importance of UCLA's win over Arizona in regards to their tournament hopes and chances.  Lunardi's last stab at the bracket had the Bruins at number 7.  They are gunning for the 2 currently reserved for Arizona and by winning at the McKale Center, in a game they led throughout, and now having won 11 of their last 12, UCLA just may be able to pull that off.  UCLA sits at 16-4, 6-1, with only Oregon ahead of them in the conference standings.  They had to overcome a lot of turmoil early on and will get credit more for wins with their team humming than for losses from when they had to incorporate star freshman Shabazz Muhammad into the lineup.  Muhammad, meanwhile, has become the team's star and will be a high fantasy draft pick should the Bruins keep up their good play.  He averages 18.2 at the moment, but that number will continue to climb.  UCLA dearly needs forward Travis Wear to come back from a concussion suffered against Arizona as he is the team's third leading scorer and second leading rebounder.  Wear had entered the game on a roll too, averaging 16.7 points for the seven games leading into the Arizona game, in raising his season average to 12.2.
Arizona has plenty of time to make up for the loss, although the Cats are a full two games behind Oregon in the hunt for the regular season title.  Arizona does not play the Ducks again this season, so they will need help, but they are a team to scout because they can definitely do damage in March both in Las Vegas for the conference tourney and then in the NCAAs.  Sophomore guard Nick Johnson has had two big games in a row, scoring 23 versus UCLA and 19 against ASU, and should be able to raise his 13.3 average.
Dana Altman's Oregon Ducks have been under the radar this year but they have been playing great ball.  They have too much basketball yet to play but the team is in great shape being that they do not have to play either UCLA or Arizona the rest of the way, having already beaten both of those fine teams.  As for fantasy purposes, Oregon players will drop for two reasons.  One, again, they have been under the radar.  Secondly, they have five guys averaging in double figures but the current leading scorer is Damyean Dotson at 11.9, while number five is Dominic Artis at 10.2.  Wait those guys out and check to see if any player is hotter than the others before pulling the trigger on a Duck.

Does Anyone Want to be Number One?

Since I posted earlier this week the number of players who are dropping in the rankings has increased while those who have gained, like some of the Miami starters, cannot be yet considered for high in round one.
Anyone on Duke?  They looked awful last night.
Russ Smith of Louisville?  Just as bad against Nova.
Cody Zeller? Two points last night.
Creighton's Doug McDermott?  He did score 19 points (although he went 0-6 from beyond 3-pt line), but Creighton's loss to mediocre Drake will further send the Blue Jays down the seeding charts.
etc, etc  It is going to be a wild draft.

Who do You Take with the First Pick?

Saturday's showcase of great games proved that we should expect both an exciting NCAA tournament (and preceding week+ of tournament championship action) and a spirited fantasy draft.  The tournament is so wide open that star players are moving up and down my projected first round with every game.  This weekend many of the nation's star players added to their resumes with marquee performances.  But who will be taken number one overall?
Yesterday's limited action showcased the talents of a few players who will be in the running for high picks.  Indiana forward Cody Zeller showed why he is in consideration for the overall number one pick with his 21 versus Northwestern.  He was difficult to guard and, most importantly, hit 9-10 free throws so you can rest assured that the ball will be in his hands at crunch time.  In his last 10 games Zeller has scored anywhere from 15 points to 24.  He is as consistent as they come and a lock for the top three if IU remains near the top of the polls.  Zeller has four other teammates who score in double figures and they will be in the hunt for picks from the second half of the first round through the end of the second.
The only other player I will mention from yesterday's slate of games is North Carolina State star forward C.J. Leslie and only because he played like a high fantasy pick last week in the upset of Duke.  Leslie scored 25 in that game and is talented enough to score 25 at any moment.  The problem is that he has scored only 19 points total over the past two games including six in yesterday's win over Clemson.  He is nowhere near the top of the first round now but keep an eye on him if the Wolfpack can continue to play well in the ACC and if he can up his game.
Louisville guard Russ Smith, who averages 19 per, played like the overall number one in scoring 25 versus Syracuse but the way the team threw that game away with two huge turnovers in the final minute will give some fantasy players pause before pulling the trigger on Smith as first pick overall. But I love how he dominates the scoring for his team, currently leading the second scorer from the Cardinals by a full eight points.
Of course Syracuse won that game and guard Brandon Triche certainly looked the part of high number one pick by scoring 23 himself.  Triche has upped his scoring of late, with fellow guard James Southerland suspended, totalling 82 points over the past five games for a 16.4 average that tops his season average by close to two points.  But Triche is too streaky for too high a pick having hit just 3-18 in scoring 14 total points in recent game against Villanova and Providence.
Kansas did not look the part of a number one seed against Texas, but that was just one game.  Still it is hard to imagine that leading scorer, freshman Ben McElmore, will ever be drafted in the top three.
An outsider for number one, at least in New York City drafts like mine, is Arizona guard Mark Lyons, who has plenty of tournament experience from his time with Xavier.  Lyons averages 15.2 but has been on fire late with 97 points in his last five games.  Experienced fantasy players will certainly remember that Lyons scored only 31 points in three games during last year's tourney but he did not have the ball in his hands then as he does now.  He will be a bargain if his stock is low bexause he plays in the Pac 12.
Another team that has been hot lately, Florida, does not have a candidate for the overall number one due to their sharing of the ball.  In the recent rout of Missouri the team's top six players all scored between nine and 15 points.
The other player worth mentioning is my pick for player of the year, Creighton's Doug McDermott.  The coach's son had a great effort in the loss to Wichita State and there is no doubts that he can score on anyone.  But where will the Bluejays be seeded? That is the million dollar question.  They will not be in the 8-9 game again this year but will not get a 1 or 2 either.
There are other candidates for top pick overall, like Duke's Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry and Michigan's Trey Burke, but they had the weekend off.  Make yourself a top 20 now and then play around with it until March.  Just remember to do it in pencil. 

Butler defeats Gonzaga

Did you see Brad Stevens after that crazy game last night?  He acted like he just won the first game of the season over lesser competition by 40 points.  Butler somehow won a game they trailed with 3.5 seconds left and their top ten opponent inbounding the ball.  Butler just won bragging rights over Gonzaga for best program for a school that was unheard of by the common fan a generation ago on a last-second floater by muscle-bound forward Roosevelt Jones.  Butler just won a memorable game because John Stockton's heady son David made a bad pass at game's end, moments after one of their own--the walk-on Alex Barlow who beat Indiana earlier in the season with a last-second shot--turned the ball over himself by traveling.  Butler won without leading scorer, Rotnei Clarke, who looked like a British dart player with his black sweater and pub-like haircut, sidelined with a neck injury.  Butler won because Brad Stevens is the best coach in the country (as if you did not know that already) and Hinkle Fieldhouse can rock with the best of them.
The problem with scouting a game like last night is that, thanks to Clarke's injury, we cannot gain enough from the winning team's performance beyond a desire to grab as many Butler guys as possible.  Jones was clearly the most impressive of the bunch, especially since he does not play Clarke's position.  Gonzaga impressed too, especially considering the environment, and we can get a better sense of what to expect from them.  The Zags have three talented big men and Butler--like most teams--does not have the size down low to stop them.  6'9 Sam Dower was the hot man early, doubling his 8-pt average in the first half alone and ending with 20 pts (he even hit two 3s) while 6'8 Elias Harris, who also finished with 20 pts (5 more than average), and 7'0 Kelly Olynk, who finished with 14 pts (4 less than average), dominated the second half.  Being that most of the opponents they play do not have three men to match up with that trio, one or more of them will have a mismatch and the Zags will exploit that situation.  Those three bigs even combined for 10-12 shooting from the charity stripe and so you cannot even throw waves of defenders at them in a foul-by-foul strategy.  The problem is that if the backcourt cannot get into a rhythm, especially from beyond the arc, then an opponent like Butler can stay with Gonzaga if they shoot threes well.  Which is what happened last night as Butler hit 8-19 three pointers, led by freshman Kellen Dunham's 4-8, while the visitors managed only 4-14.  Lead guard Kevin Pangos, who nailed 4-8 from 3-pt land on Thursday versus Portland and 3-5 against St. Marys the game before, took only three long attempts and made one.  Pangos is a true roll of the dice pick for fantasy purposes as you will have to take him fairly high and yet in his last seven games he has given the Zags the following point totals: 31-23-9-6-22-14-5.
The big lesson from last night's excellent regular season clash is that you should be very bullish on both teams.  Of course so will everyone else.

Great Day

What a day of hoops.  If you were not a fan of college basketball entering today and watched some package of Creighton-Wichita State, Syracuse-Louisville, Kansas-Texas, Michigan State-Ohio State, Cincinnati-Marquette and then, the best of them all, Butler-Gonzaga, you are now the craziest of the crazies.  I feel like I was watching the opening week of the tournament.  I will break down some of the action tomorrow.

Tragic Anniversary

Twenty years ago today Iowa power forward Chris Street was heading home after a team dinner with his girlfriend Kim Vinton.  It was snowing.  After leaving The Highlander, located outside of Iowa City, Street skidded and collided with a snow plow while entering a highway.  He was killed and Vinton badly hurt.  She recovered while the Hawkeyes lost the heart and soul of their team.
Today Iowa will remember Street at tonight's game versus Wisconsin.  He already has an award named for him that is handed out to the Hawkeye hoopster who best "exemplifies the spirit, intensity and enthusiasm of Chris Street".  His number 40 was retired in 1993.
Chris was drafted in my NCAA Tournament fantasy league--by then already named in honor of another fallen warrior, Hank Gathers--in 1992 and played in two games as the Hawkeyes lost to eventual champion Duke for the second straight year.  Street would have been selected fairly high in 1993 as the Hawkeyes probably would have been seeded higher without his loss (they were 11-3 with him).  As it is they were a four seed and lost to Wake Forest in the second round.
As Street's Iowa coach Tom Davis said in 1993, "Chris represented all that is good about the Midwest and the state of Iowa.  He was open, caring, honest, loving and lived life to the fullest every day." 

Every Game Counts

Taking a quick look at CBS Sports expert Jerry Palm's latest bracket, which came out Monday, shows you how important each and every game is on each team's schedule.  Well maybe not each team, but the top 100 or so.  Take Maryland.  Sitting with a nice won-loss record, now at 14-3, the Terps are nowhere to be found on Palm's bracket.  Well, at least not on the current one, as Maryland did not have a marquee win this year until last night's last-second edging of North Carolina State.  Now they did play the Wolfpack at the best time, fresh off their beating of Duke, but when it comes to a team's resume that will not be held against them come March.  Of course the Terps have a lot more to do and with games this month on the road at UNC, Duke and FSU, they can greatly enhance their shaky standing with continued good play.
As for the Pack, they are currently playing for a high seed.  Palm has them at a 3 and a late loss on the road in conference should not damage that placement.  They are no longer tied with Miami atop the ACC and that is the biggest setback at the moment.  Winning the regular season championship will go a long way toward earning that team a 1 or a 2.
UNLV's impressive road win last night over San Diego State is, as of now, important to both teams for just seeding purposes--but those spots are very important to any Mountain West squad.  San Diego State, and for that matter 2012 co-champion New Mexico, had an excellent season last year before losing in the conference title game to the Lobos and ended up with a 6 (New Mexico got a 5 so apparently that one game decided a one spot difference in the seedings).  On Monday Palm had the 15th-ranked Aztecs sitting on a 5 (surprise, surprise) and UNLV was looking at the dreaded 8 spot.  Do you want to know how bad that 8 is?  If Palm is correct--and of course a lot will change from now until March 17--the Rebs were looking at a first round match-up with Marquette with the winner facing Kansas in...drum roll please...Kansas City.  Good luck.  And so UNLV won a huge game last night that will help get them off that 8 spot and, most importantly, pulled them into a tie with San Diego State for second place behind the Lobos.
Those are just two obvious examples of how each game played, especially from this point forward, is huge for teams scrambling for spots in the NCAA tournament.  I also like to see which players perform best in these spotlight games and take notes on who is clutch and who is not.

Wisconsin Wonder

The Badgers did it again, beating Indiana for the 11th straight time and on the road to boot.  IU can improve all they want but without experience at the point they will continue to struggle against teams like Wisconsin that will slow it down on them.  True there are not many teams quite like the Badgers, but as VCU proved in round two of the NCAA tourney last year, the Hoosiers need to improve in the halfcourt offense in the two months leading up to March Madness.  Indiana--really any squad that loves to score via the break--is vulnerable to opponents that rebound and keep turnovers to a minimum.  Last night was a great learning lesson for the wonderfully talented freshman Yogi Ferrell, and he will improve, but until he fully blossoms the greatness of the Hoosier frontcourt must dominate games like this without the basketball.  Hustle down the court, beat your man to optimal spots on the court, get on the boards etc.  And the guards need to shoot a whole lot better in crunch time if this team hopes to reach the elite eight or better.  As for the fantasy outlook for Indiana players, well you still should be gunning for them but perhaps temper your excitement based on possible tournament match-ups.
As for the Badgers, well they are what they are.  Wisconsin is on a great roll at the moment and as we know from history they can be quite a nuisance in March.  Last night also proved that it is better to look for bargains from this team in later rounds then to commit too early for their scoring leaders.  Of its top three scorers, Jared Berggren, Ryan Evans and Ben Brust, only Evans with 13 points hit double figures last night.  Meanwhile guard Traevon Jackson, who averages 5.6 points on the season, scored twice that with 11 points.  Jackson, frosh Sam Dekker and annual favorite Mike Bruesewitz may all provide better value in later rounds than the big three scorers.  Heck 6'11 soph Frank Kaminsky drained two three pointers in the first half before leaving the game with an eye injury.  He only averages 4.6 a game but could have easily scored 10 or more last night.

Situation at Syracuse

Fighting for a Big East championship and NCAA tournament high seed, the Syracuse Orange will be going forward, at least temporarily, without a key contributor as sixth man James Southerland has been suspended indefinitely with what has been assumed to be an academic issue.  How will the suspension hurt the Orange and how does it effect the rest of the roster?  Who will pick up the 13 points the senior sixth man brought to the table?
It was easy to be reminded of last year as it was January of 2012 when Syracuse center Fab Melo was nailed for academics and Syracuse struggled at times without their best big man.  That loaded Orange team went to the elite eight and while you desire more than that as a Syracuse fan you could not be too upset.  This year the suspension hurts the team in a different way as the bench has athletic wing players to take Southerland's minutes.  What will be missed however is senior leadership, defense, rebounding and, when he is hot, a rare ability for this squad to hit an outside shot.
Of course Southerland has to be on to generate points. You cannot have too many Southerlands on a fantasy squad as he is very inconsistent, partly because he is sometimes on sometimes off and partly because that is the way it is with the Cuse offense.  Although he maintained his 13-pt season average through the first three conference games on the Syracuse schedule--all against lesser teams--his work in December was all over the charts.  He had 35 points on the road against Arkansas and topped 20 points three other times.  But he did not reach double digits in six games this season including six points each in a key win over San Diego State and in the loss to Temple.  If he does return to the Orange I will probably suggest that you pass on the senior forward, especially if he projects to be a second round pick.
The next question is where will Southerland's points end up?  Look first at the two leaders of the club, guard Brandon Triche and forward C.J. Fair.  In game one without Southerland, the team's recent win over Villanova, Triche struggled to score 10 pts (shooting 1-8 from floor) while Fair scored 22 points on 7-12 shooting.  Fair, who played seven more minutes than his average, passed Southerland in average for the season, 13.8-13.6, and now trails Triche by .3.  Keep an eye on both of these team leaders the rest of the way.
The second most obvious Syracuse player to benefit statistically by Southerland's absence is freshman forward Jerami Grant, who played 29 minutes off the bench versus Nova and scored 12 points.  Grant, who father Harvey missed our first fantasy draft by one year, is averaging 12 minutes and 4.4 points per game.  Those will go up.  Grant replaces Southerland's length and athleticism.  He will be crucial on defense and with rebounding.  As his scoring average improves he will steadily climb the player rankings.
The third component of Syracuse's offense that will see more opportunities is the outside shooters, of which the team is deficient.  But if opponents begin loading up down low to force Syracuse to shoot, someone will have to make them pay.  Against Villanova guard Michael Carter-Williams hoisted 12 shots. He only made 3, and finished with 10 points, but if you draft him you will be happy with double digit attempts.  Off the bench freshman guard Trevor Cooney needs to be followed as he hit two three pointers in the last game for six points.  If he continues to get looks he should be able to raise his five point average and earn a nice reward for the patient drafter.
Something else to watch for during Southerland's absence is the points put up by their opponents as Southerland had become a key wing defender in the deadly Cuse zone.  Start doing your homework.

We're Baaaaack!

Two months and two days to go until Selection Sunday.  And since approximately 30 schools have legitimate final four dreams in this wide open year we will have a crazy NCAA tournament.  We here at The Gods of March will be your ultimate source of player and team information as March Madness approaches.  Tune in often.
We will begin updating you soon on injuries and suspensions, favorites and long shots.  Let the fun begin.