How Injuries Affect Your Thinking

When preparing a draft list for a fantasy college basketball team--or well any team--the role of injuries is of course crucial.  For this year's tournament there will be some obvious dilemmas for everyone in terms of guys injured in March and not ruled out for a mid-month return.  Duke's Ryan Kelly was hurt in the ACC tournament last year and was drafted, nonetheless, in the third round of the Hagamit Tournament.  He did not play and his owner was saddled with a bagel for a third round player.  That's hard to overcome.  This year Kelly is hurt again and we will have to wait and see both if he will return and to what level.
Injuries are more complicated than that, however.  Take last night's Florida loss.  The Gators are not the same team as they were a couple of weeks ago due to injuries to key role players.  The stars are healthy but the margin of winning versus losing is tighter without the depth these players provided.  Unlike roti football, pro basketball and baseball, injuries to guys you do not own could more easily screw the guys you do own.  Own a RB in a share and the other guy gets hurt?  You celebrate.  Own the set up guy and he closer gets hurt and your guy becomes the new night-inning man?  Get the champagne on ice.  Now it is not as simple as that as an injury to a team's leadoff man will hurt the third or fourth hitter you may own but generally you may get more opportunities for your team and your team will continue with its schedule.  That second point, of course, is crucial with March Madness fantasy.  Should Florida still lack depth come March you must not celebrate the extra minutes coming to the starters but be worried that they may get bounced early.  Duke may have beaten Lehigh in the first round last year with Kelly.  Who knows?  The key to winning is not finding out because you still have to take that team's stars high.  Plumlee and Curry went in the second round and Rivers ar the end of round one.  Losing high picks in round one hurts.
There is a part two to this discussion, which will follow.