Wow, the news of the additions for the "new" Big East--and yes the Catholic Seven appear to be keeping the name--is great (for them anyway, not so great for the Atlantic 10 and MVC). Butler and Xavier will join next year and then Dayton, St. Louis and Creighton will join the following year.
As for tonight's picks I thought about both BYU and Utah State as dogs against very good competition (Gonzaga and La Tech) but chickened out. I stand at 3-0.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Tonight's Pick
UConn getting 1.5
This is the last marquee game for a Huskies squad that cannot play much in March. This will be their title game.
This is the last marquee game for a Huskies squad that cannot play much in March. This will be their title game.
How Injuries Affect Your Thinking
When preparing a draft list for a fantasy college basketball team--or well any team--the role of injuries is of course crucial. For this year's tournament there will be some obvious dilemmas for everyone in terms of guys injured in March and not ruled out for a mid-month return. Duke's Ryan Kelly was hurt in the ACC tournament last year and was drafted, nonetheless, in the third round of the Hagamit Tournament. He did not play and his owner was saddled with a bagel for a third round player. That's hard to overcome. This year Kelly is hurt again and we will have to wait and see both if he will return and to what level.
Injuries are more complicated than that, however. Take last night's Florida loss. The Gators are not the same team as they were a couple of weeks ago due to injuries to key role players. The stars are healthy but the margin of winning versus losing is tighter without the depth these players provided. Unlike roti football, pro basketball and baseball, injuries to guys you do not own could more easily screw the guys you do own. Own a RB in a share and the other guy gets hurt? You celebrate. Own the set up guy and he closer gets hurt and your guy becomes the new night-inning man? Get the champagne on ice. Now it is not as simple as that as an injury to a team's leadoff man will hurt the third or fourth hitter you may own but generally you may get more opportunities for your team and your team will continue with its schedule. That second point, of course, is crucial with March Madness fantasy. Should Florida still lack depth come March you must not celebrate the extra minutes coming to the starters but be worried that they may get bounced early. Duke may have beaten Lehigh in the first round last year with Kelly. Who knows? The key to winning is not finding out because you still have to take that team's stars high. Plumlee and Curry went in the second round and Rivers ar the end of round one. Losing high picks in round one hurts.
There is a part two to this discussion, which will follow.
Injuries are more complicated than that, however. Take last night's Florida loss. The Gators are not the same team as they were a couple of weeks ago due to injuries to key role players. The stars are healthy but the margin of winning versus losing is tighter without the depth these players provided. Unlike roti football, pro basketball and baseball, injuries to guys you do not own could more easily screw the guys you do own. Own a RB in a share and the other guy gets hurt? You celebrate. Own the set up guy and he closer gets hurt and your guy becomes the new night-inning man? Get the champagne on ice. Now it is not as simple as that as an injury to a team's leadoff man will hurt the third or fourth hitter you may own but generally you may get more opportunities for your team and your team will continue with its schedule. That second point, of course, is crucial with March Madness fantasy. Should Florida still lack depth come March you must not celebrate the extra minutes coming to the starters but be worried that they may get bounced early. Duke may have beaten Lehigh in the first round last year with Kelly. Who knows? The key to winning is not finding out because you still have to take that team's stars high. Plumlee and Curry went in the second round and Rivers ar the end of round one. Losing high picks in round one hurts.
There is a part two to this discussion, which will follow.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Tonight's Picks
For fun I'll give you some free predictions on games. I will start tonight with Xavier getting 5 from visiting Memphis and another home dog, Tennessee, who is getting 8.5 from Florida. Good luck.
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Bracket Busters
One of the many problems with scouting this weekend's lineup of mid majors versus mid majors is that the schedule is based on television and not the best situation for folks like me needing to scout. For example I have seen Creighton and St. Marys play and do not need to see hem pitted against each other, although I will watch that game of course and learn from it. But I really needed to scout Akron but last night's game did not show me much thanks to a middling opponent (N. Dakota St.) being played at home. With the MAC not guaranteed a second team, despite Ohio's great run in last year's NCAA tournament, Akron really needed to impress last night but was not given the opportunity.
The other problem is he home-road scenario. There is not much you can do about this, of course, but the home teams do not get the needed boost that a big road win would give them. Stephen F. Austin did look good on the road last night but neither the Lumberjacks nor Long Beach were getting an at large. It was a nice win for Stephen F. but it is difficult to glean much from a match-up they will not get in March if they do get in.
The best part of this weekend for me is just the attention these schools get, even if it is way down in terms of ESPN respect in this the last year of Bracket Busters. While it may have been less important than once thought, it was crucial to getting programs on air that normally get ignored. So in addition to Creighton and St. Marys, enjoy Davidson, Detroit and the Nate Wolters versus Isiah Canaan match-up tonight.
The other problem is he home-road scenario. There is not much you can do about this, of course, but the home teams do not get the needed boost that a big road win would give them. Stephen F. Austin did look good on the road last night but neither the Lumberjacks nor Long Beach were getting an at large. It was a nice win for Stephen F. but it is difficult to glean much from a match-up they will not get in March if they do get in.
The best part of this weekend for me is just the attention these schools get, even if it is way down in terms of ESPN respect in this the last year of Bracket Busters. While it may have been less important than once thought, it was crucial to getting programs on air that normally get ignored. So in addition to Creighton and St. Marys, enjoy Davidson, Detroit and the Nate Wolters versus Isiah Canaan match-up tonight.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Uggggh!
ESPN's weekly coverage of college football is focused on one main topic: which two teams are going to play for the national championship. That's the main topic, especially from September through November, and they speak ad nauseum about which teams could run the table and who is the best one-loss team etc. It is enough to make you sick.
So now they are doing it in hoops, where so much of what they talk about centers on the top spot in the weekly polls and which of only a handful of teams they deem worthy of the spot will, in fact, earn it this week. They speak very little, if anything, of conference races despite the fact that these races are what is truly important and they lose sight of the fact that play on the court should be promoted and not the tradition behind the jersey. And so they spend hours discussing Kansas's bad play but not one minute on Kansas State's good play. But it is the Wildcats, not Jayhawks, who now occupy the top spot in the Big 12 (not that I have given them their just due but will soon), at least until tomorrow night's match-up against their in-state rivals. The Cats are just one of many teams that have shot to the top of their respective conferences, surprising the prognosticators with their fine play. Miami, of course, has been the year-round surprise in the ACC, but did you know that St. Louis has caught Butler and VCU atop the Atlantic 10, that Marquette is tied with Syracuse as leaders of the Big East, ditto Michigan State with Indiana in Big Ten, Indiana State has reeled in Wichita State and Creighton in the Missouri Valley and that Colorado State is a half game back in the Mountain West? Meanwhile there is a three-way tie for the Pac 12 lead and Kentucky is breathing down Florida's neck in the SEC. The conference races are wonderful and should be the focus of the national media's attention. Who cares who is number one this week?
So now they are doing it in hoops, where so much of what they talk about centers on the top spot in the weekly polls and which of only a handful of teams they deem worthy of the spot will, in fact, earn it this week. They speak very little, if anything, of conference races despite the fact that these races are what is truly important and they lose sight of the fact that play on the court should be promoted and not the tradition behind the jersey. And so they spend hours discussing Kansas's bad play but not one minute on Kansas State's good play. But it is the Wildcats, not Jayhawks, who now occupy the top spot in the Big 12 (not that I have given them their just due but will soon), at least until tomorrow night's match-up against their in-state rivals. The Cats are just one of many teams that have shot to the top of their respective conferences, surprising the prognosticators with their fine play. Miami, of course, has been the year-round surprise in the ACC, but did you know that St. Louis has caught Butler and VCU atop the Atlantic 10, that Marquette is tied with Syracuse as leaders of the Big East, ditto Michigan State with Indiana in Big Ten, Indiana State has reeled in Wichita State and Creighton in the Missouri Valley and that Colorado State is a half game back in the Mountain West? Meanwhile there is a three-way tie for the Pac 12 lead and Kentucky is breathing down Florida's neck in the SEC. The conference races are wonderful and should be the focus of the national media's attention. Who cares who is number one this week?
Friday, February 8, 2013
Kansas Falters
One of the many difficulties in making selections or bids on players in fantasy is how much we should weigh what we see in person or on tv versus what the stats tell us for a player's entire season. Take this week. If you watched Kansas struggle Wednesday against a mediocre-at-best Horned Frogs squad, you would not only pass on any and all Jayhawks come March but not even put them on your board. They were awful and being that Kansas was, and still is, looking at a top seed we have to view Ben McLemore, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford, et al, as high round picks with McLemore being looked at as a top ten selection. Now what's a fantasy player to do?
Human nature, and fantasy players are human (I think), will lead us to hammer KU if we entered this week as disbelievers--and I am in that category--or treat the game as an aberration if we like KU come March. Obviously they have six weeks to straighten things out but you will be affected come March by watching that dreadful game compared to someone who did not. This is especially true if you only watched Kansas looking bad but happen to only watch, let's say Duke, look good. You did not catch the Blue Devils in their dreadful game, last month against Miami, but caught games like last night against the Wolfpack. And so in the first round with your third pick you are debating Mason Plumlee and Ben McLemore and you remember Plumlee's 30 last night and McLemore's 0-6 from 3, you are taking Plumlee. This is especially true in the second round when guys like Duke's Quinn Cook and Kansas's Releford are on the board. If you do not watch many games but saw Releford score 1 point on Wednesday and Cook 21 last night, well you'll pull the trigger on Cook.
Further complicating things is how you compare stars of player from the more prestigious, and at times overrated, conferences to the leading players from schools we rarely see. Isaiah Canaan looked great last night on the U versus Belmont and should Murray State make the tourney and not get totally screwed with their seeding, you will have to decide between him and let's say Kansas's Elijah Johnson in the third round. Based on what we saw this week, Canaan is the pick because he has a legitimate shot to play a couple of games and score 50 or more points while KU may not go too far and Johnson struggles at times to score. Last year I had both and Johnson was much more valuable as he helped Kansas reach the finals while Murray lost to Marquette in round two. With these players you can win with a great performance, like Stephen Curry when Davidson went Final Eight or get frustrated pulling the trigger on a gun who struggles in a first round loss.
So remember to watch as much as you can so one or two performances do not get overblown and to balance what you see versus what you know--like Bill Self's incredible record in the NCAA tournament.
Human nature, and fantasy players are human (I think), will lead us to hammer KU if we entered this week as disbelievers--and I am in that category--or treat the game as an aberration if we like KU come March. Obviously they have six weeks to straighten things out but you will be affected come March by watching that dreadful game compared to someone who did not. This is especially true if you only watched Kansas looking bad but happen to only watch, let's say Duke, look good. You did not catch the Blue Devils in their dreadful game, last month against Miami, but caught games like last night against the Wolfpack. And so in the first round with your third pick you are debating Mason Plumlee and Ben McLemore and you remember Plumlee's 30 last night and McLemore's 0-6 from 3, you are taking Plumlee. This is especially true in the second round when guys like Duke's Quinn Cook and Kansas's Releford are on the board. If you do not watch many games but saw Releford score 1 point on Wednesday and Cook 21 last night, well you'll pull the trigger on Cook.
Further complicating things is how you compare stars of player from the more prestigious, and at times overrated, conferences to the leading players from schools we rarely see. Isaiah Canaan looked great last night on the U versus Belmont and should Murray State make the tourney and not get totally screwed with their seeding, you will have to decide between him and let's say Kansas's Elijah Johnson in the third round. Based on what we saw this week, Canaan is the pick because he has a legitimate shot to play a couple of games and score 50 or more points while KU may not go too far and Johnson struggles at times to score. Last year I had both and Johnson was much more valuable as he helped Kansas reach the finals while Murray lost to Marquette in round two. With these players you can win with a great performance, like Stephen Curry when Davidson went Final Eight or get frustrated pulling the trigger on a gun who struggles in a first round loss.
So remember to watch as much as you can so one or two performances do not get overblown and to balance what you see versus what you know--like Bill Self's incredible record in the NCAA tournament.
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