Who do You Take with the First Pick?

Saturday's showcase of great games proved that we should expect both an exciting NCAA tournament (and preceding week+ of tournament championship action) and a spirited fantasy draft.  The tournament is so wide open that star players are moving up and down my projected first round with every game.  This weekend many of the nation's star players added to their resumes with marquee performances.  But who will be taken number one overall?
Yesterday's limited action showcased the talents of a few players who will be in the running for high picks.  Indiana forward Cody Zeller showed why he is in consideration for the overall number one pick with his 21 versus Northwestern.  He was difficult to guard and, most importantly, hit 9-10 free throws so you can rest assured that the ball will be in his hands at crunch time.  In his last 10 games Zeller has scored anywhere from 15 points to 24.  He is as consistent as they come and a lock for the top three if IU remains near the top of the polls.  Zeller has four other teammates who score in double figures and they will be in the hunt for picks from the second half of the first round through the end of the second.
The only other player I will mention from yesterday's slate of games is North Carolina State star forward C.J. Leslie and only because he played like a high fantasy pick last week in the upset of Duke.  Leslie scored 25 in that game and is talented enough to score 25 at any moment.  The problem is that he has scored only 19 points total over the past two games including six in yesterday's win over Clemson.  He is nowhere near the top of the first round now but keep an eye on him if the Wolfpack can continue to play well in the ACC and if he can up his game.
Louisville guard Russ Smith, who averages 19 per, played like the overall number one in scoring 25 versus Syracuse but the way the team threw that game away with two huge turnovers in the final minute will give some fantasy players pause before pulling the trigger on Smith as first pick overall. But I love how he dominates the scoring for his team, currently leading the second scorer from the Cardinals by a full eight points.
Of course Syracuse won that game and guard Brandon Triche certainly looked the part of high number one pick by scoring 23 himself.  Triche has upped his scoring of late, with fellow guard James Southerland suspended, totalling 82 points over the past five games for a 16.4 average that tops his season average by close to two points.  But Triche is too streaky for too high a pick having hit just 3-18 in scoring 14 total points in recent game against Villanova and Providence.
Kansas did not look the part of a number one seed against Texas, but that was just one game.  Still it is hard to imagine that leading scorer, freshman Ben McElmore, will ever be drafted in the top three.
An outsider for number one, at least in New York City drafts like mine, is Arizona guard Mark Lyons, who has plenty of tournament experience from his time with Xavier.  Lyons averages 15.2 but has been on fire late with 97 points in his last five games.  Experienced fantasy players will certainly remember that Lyons scored only 31 points in three games during last year's tourney but he did not have the ball in his hands then as he does now.  He will be a bargain if his stock is low bexause he plays in the Pac 12.
Another team that has been hot lately, Florida, does not have a candidate for the overall number one due to their sharing of the ball.  In the recent rout of Missouri the team's top six players all scored between nine and 15 points.
The other player worth mentioning is my pick for player of the year, Creighton's Doug McDermott.  The coach's son had a great effort in the loss to Wichita State and there is no doubts that he can score on anyone.  But where will the Bluejays be seeded? That is the million dollar question.  They will not be in the 8-9 game again this year but will not get a 1 or 2 either.
There are other candidates for top pick overall, like Duke's Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry and Michigan's Trey Burke, but they had the weekend off.  Make yourself a top 20 now and then play around with it until March.  Just remember to do it in pencil.