Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Situation at Syracuse

Fighting for a Big East championship and NCAA tournament high seed, the Syracuse Orange will be going forward, at least temporarily, without a key contributor as sixth man James Southerland has been suspended indefinitely with what has been assumed to be an academic issue.  How will the suspension hurt the Orange and how does it effect the rest of the roster?  Who will pick up the 13 points the senior sixth man brought to the table?
It was easy to be reminded of last year as it was January of 2012 when Syracuse center Fab Melo was nailed for academics and Syracuse struggled at times without their best big man.  That loaded Orange team went to the elite eight and while you desire more than that as a Syracuse fan you could not be too upset.  This year the suspension hurts the team in a different way as the bench has athletic wing players to take Southerland's minutes.  What will be missed however is senior leadership, defense, rebounding and, when he is hot, a rare ability for this squad to hit an outside shot.
Of course Southerland has to be on to generate points. You cannot have too many Southerlands on a fantasy squad as he is very inconsistent, partly because he is sometimes on sometimes off and partly because that is the way it is with the Cuse offense.  Although he maintained his 13-pt season average through the first three conference games on the Syracuse schedule--all against lesser teams--his work in December was all over the charts.  He had 35 points on the road against Arkansas and topped 20 points three other times.  But he did not reach double digits in six games this season including six points each in a key win over San Diego State and in the loss to Temple.  If he does return to the Orange I will probably suggest that you pass on the senior forward, especially if he projects to be a second round pick.
The next question is where will Southerland's points end up?  Look first at the two leaders of the club, guard Brandon Triche and forward C.J. Fair.  In game one without Southerland, the team's recent win over Villanova, Triche struggled to score 10 pts (shooting 1-8 from floor) while Fair scored 22 points on 7-12 shooting.  Fair, who played seven more minutes than his average, passed Southerland in average for the season, 13.8-13.6, and now trails Triche by .3.  Keep an eye on both of these team leaders the rest of the way.
The second most obvious Syracuse player to benefit statistically by Southerland's absence is freshman forward Jerami Grant, who played 29 minutes off the bench versus Nova and scored 12 points.  Grant, who father Harvey missed our first fantasy draft by one year, is averaging 12 minutes and 4.4 points per game.  Those will go up.  Grant replaces Southerland's length and athleticism.  He will be crucial on defense and with rebounding.  As his scoring average improves he will steadily climb the player rankings.
The third component of Syracuse's offense that will see more opportunities is the outside shooters, of which the team is deficient.  But if opponents begin loading up down low to force Syracuse to shoot, someone will have to make them pay.  Against Villanova guard Michael Carter-Williams hoisted 12 shots. He only made 3, and finished with 10 points, but if you draft him you will be happy with double digit attempts.  Off the bench freshman guard Trevor Cooney needs to be followed as he hit two three pointers in the last game for six points.  If he continues to get looks he should be able to raise his five point average and earn a nice reward for the patient drafter.
Something else to watch for during Southerland's absence is the points put up by their opponents as Southerland had become a key wing defender in the deadly Cuse zone.  Start doing your homework.

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